I have decided to stop posting my picks in this blog, BrainBetting.com is the place for you to get them.

It's been a pleasure for me to be here, but it has to stop. I hope I can continue with this blog one day. Wish you all hapiness and a lot of money.

Ted

Pandurii meet Gloria Buzau in a Romanian Cup clash, the match will be played at Mogosoaia, no home advantage thus. If you would look at the standings (Divizia A) you might be tempted to rate this handicap as fair, even wonder why it's level ball as Gloria are higher rated, BUT, there are other several factors that change completely the situation, and make Pandurri favourites in my view. So here we go:

To tell you the truth, Pandurri have impressed more in this second half of the season. Despite losing 1-3 to Poli, they've shown some nice football, especially offensively, but it was great Timisoara who were simply too brilliant to be stopped from taking all the three points. On the contrary, Gloria have got a point on their trip to Constanta, but the way they played was far from being impressive. And the reason why they haven't lost the game stands only in Farul who have put on a modest play, and haven't threatened Gloria at the back as they should have.

Having said that, there's also the motivational factor that favours Pandurii too. Their coach -Joaquim Teixeira- has been given a ultimatum, he might be leaving the club very well should he lose this Cup game. On the other hand, the Buzau based club don't seem to care much as far as Romanian Cup goes, their main goal is to avoid relegation this season, thus i don't expect them to fight for their lives when they play Pandurii today. To be also mentioned, that the players won't be given any bonus should they go through, as they've been promissed an unique bonus if win the Cup, which looks quite impossible in my view, and they know that too.

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The bet might look insane if you consider the fact that Zalayeta is out for the visitors, but on the other hand I've managed to get even more reasons that favour my selection though.

Firstly, please note that both teams won't have their main goalkeepers: Genoa will be playing Scarpi on goolie cause Rubinho is out, and then Gianello will replace Iezzo on the other side. Secondly, I believe Napoli can score even without Zalayeta, they are expected to have Sosa and Calait up front and they've been okey so far. Their middle composed of 5 players looks decent too, thus we're talking about a 3-5-2 formation which can't be called defensive-minded. As for Genoa, they'll have amazing Borriello up front, sustained by Scull and Leon in a 3-4-3 formation, which again, can be called as you wish but not defensive-minded that's for sure.

Generally, these 2 teams have never had scoring problems this year, on the contrary, have suffered from lack of concentration at the back, poor defending in one word. Hence I'm having a punt on over.

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I'm simply inloved by this offer, don't even know how to start. Well, the fact that Fiorentina have been winning on the line their recent matches, and more importantly, that Mutu is ruled out, is more than enough for Viola to get slandered by the public at large, and make them available at only -0.75 when they host Livorno tonight in the Tuscan derby. Veira is out too, but he's more a substitute anyway.

What they seem to be missing though, is that Livorno are without their top scorer Tavano, and believe it or not, but Tavano means a lot more for Livorno compared to Mutu for Fiorentina. The hosts will have Pazzini, Santana, and Osvaldo up front, and that's more than enough in my view to break a poor Livorno defence. All in all, they look a lot better up front than Tristan as lone striker for the visitors.

"We matched Roma, as we did against Milan. We have spent a lot of energy but morale is high and we played really well despite the result. We came close to goal on a number of occasions and I think a draw would have been a fairer result. Now we must leave the defeat behind and think about Livorno", declared Gobbi.

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Betis beat Real Madrid in the last round, but apart from that they haven't shown anything special of late. Used to respect Betis a few months ago, but now when I see how they play I wonder what happened. They tend to develop a lot of their actions on wings these days, and from what I've noticed so far they seem to be lacking imagination and ideas up front, play husky, not for my taste that's for sure. David Rivas, regular defender looks out.

Mallorca instead come off three draws in a row, feel it's the right time for a win, especially that I'm a firm believer they can do a lot more their current home record suggests ( 4-4-3 only). Nunes, important defender is out, but the team has generally been in good shape this year, and play really nice football at home. -0.25 that has been offered is too good to be missed.

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Despite their improved position in the standings I still rate Bilbao quite low currently, that's because I refuse to believe they really deserved to win all those games. Many many games they could have lost this season, a good example is their last trip to Atletico de Madrid, where they've scored on their first chance on a fast counter-attack, and then have doubled their lead from a set piece. The Madrid side have got an early red card in the 2nd half and Bilbao have somehow put an end to Atletico's chances to react, even though they had a couple of nice chances even in 10 men.

Anyway, when they host Villarreal it's going to be different. The Yellow Submarines have classy players and play wise on the road, moreover they won't do the same mistake as Atletico. I expect them waiting calmly for their chances on counters, and as Bilbao are at home shall press sooner or later, and that's the best way to lose a game against a side like Villarreal who are deadly on counters, despite missing Rossi and Matias Fernandez on Sunday.

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The current handicap suggests that Livorno and Napoli are more or less equal from the quality point of view. With all my regards to Edoardo Reja and his men, Napoli are a step above if you ask me.

Striker Marcelo Zalayeta got suspended, defender Maurizio Domizzi is also suspended , Gennaro Iezzo and Andrea Cupi are injured for hosts, but, Livorno are without Tavano who's probably the only player who can score for them, thus I rate his absence by far more important than all Napoli's missings.

Napoli come off 2 defats in a row, Livorno come off a draw against Milanm they are also supposed somehow to try harder regarding the relegation threat, but I have big doubts that's enough in order to secure a good result today, taking into account the miserable form they've been so far.

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Atalanta have been pure steel at home this season, they have an amazing striking force with Doni as leader of their offence, and a leader of the team generally. They've lost to Lazio in a shameful 3-0 defeat, but the truth is that it's been an even match and could have ended much different. Both Lazio and Atalanta have had their chances, but it was the home side who had more imspiration up front, and due to their better finishing have converted their chances in goals. Atalanta instead have missed all they could have missed, hence the result. "Regardless of possible errors, it must be said that we were less aggressive than usual. With a little more attention we could have gained an important result,'' declared their manager.

Now they host Siena, a team that has scared a lot of people recently with their surprising win over Roma, and their supposed good play against Milan, even though Milan were missing several key players. However, they'll be mssing their top scorer Massimo Maccarone, and knowing how strong Atalanta are at home, I don't give them much chances to snath anything really.

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It reminds me of the Livorno-Juventus match with Bianconeri winning easily 3-1, and they were priced the same, a great -0.5, just as today, but Reggina are even worse than Livorno, so I take it as a gift. The missings of Buffon who'll be rested, and then top scorer Trezeguet, alongside Iaquinta, are are the reasons why some people may put on doubt an away win here, but looking at their probable eleven, I think there's still enough quality in order to beat struggling Reggina. "We just have to focus game by game.'', said Del Piero.

As for reggina I have no words to describe their weakness, not sure why but they always tend to be ooverrated though. Rememeber last round against Udinese, they got an undeserved level ball, which again, proved to be wrongly set. Another easy win for Juve in my view.

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Carr, Martins and Emre are out for Newcastle, no significat missing on the other side instead. The Magpies are a dead team at the moment, they play worse and worse round by round since their new manager came. They tend to defend too much the 0-0 score from the beginning of the match, and end up losing big, as it's happened at Villa Park in the last round. Now they'll play at home, but can they get better? I doubt the home crowd will suddenly help them so much.

United instead play amazing football this year, and they've proved that in Europe too in midweek. Despite the possible tiredness, there's no way for them to lose points as if they do, they'll surely lose the touch with Arsenal, and that's not exactly what Sir Alex Fergusson is looking for. Can't imagine any other outcome on this one but away win, likely by 2 or more, hence my bet.

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It's a fact that Wigan have drastically improved of late, that Derby are going to relegate is another fact. Having said that, I can't imagine how the Latics could lose points today. Several factors that justify my selections though:

First of all, there's the recent h2h clash, I never care about stats and don't back Wigan now because they had won, I back them because of the way they done it, I mean, they had smply outplayed Derby and should have got a even more convincing victory.Also, Wigan have a very important advantage in their pittch. As far as I know the Hammers have had a lot of problems to plays there a few rounds ago, and that explains why the Latics are so different from home to road, eben though they had a great match at Sunderland in the last round=sign of improvement. Also note the return of Heskey-important striker expected to have a positive impact up front.

About Derby there's not much to be said, jsut looks at their results and you'll get a clear picture of their incapacity to collect points in this tough for them season of EPL. Alos have some missings but that's not so important anyway, they are just too weak no matter the players they field.

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